Bagdad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS65 KVEF 121751
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1050 AM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures continue through midweek, with Extreme
  Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect.

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity possible across various
  parts of the forecast area, with best chances in our eastern zones
  mid-to-late week.

* Dry lightning potential coupled with dry fuels increases the
  danger of fire starts and spreads mid-to-late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Today and Wednesday, the Desert Southwest will be situated directly
below the center of a high pressure system. As a result, warm
overnight lows and afternoon highs between 4 and 8 degrees above
seasonal normals will translate into widespread Major Heat Risk
across our desert valley locations today. Meanwhile, areas of higher
terrain including the southern Great Basin and the mountains of
Clark County will have widespread Moderate Heat Risk with
smatterings of Major. Higher elevations experiencing this level of
heat can be dangerous, as those in valley locations may travel for
heat relief and won`t find it. For these reasons, Extreme Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories cover nearly the entire forecast area
today. Will continue to assess temperature trends to determine if
these headlines need to be extended into Wednesday, as the cooling
trend continues to slow down. Regardless, temperatures will cool
heading into the weekend as troughing pushes into our forecast area.
Ensure that you`re hydrating, avoiding outdoor activities during the
heat of the day, and checking on your neighbors and loved ones.

Moisture trapped beneath the center of the high today may kick off
some shower and thunderstorm activity over the Sierra Nevada crest
this afternoon, resulting in the potential for gusty winds in the
northern Owens Valley and portions of Esmeralda County. Otherwise,
expect sunny skies today. Wednesday, PWATs in excess of 0.75 inches
start to inch up the Colorado River Valley and Mohave County,
bringing 30-40% PoPs to our far eastern zones. Meanwhile, the chance
of Sierra Crest storm activity returns (10-20%). Thursday and
Friday, PWATs peak in the eastern half of the CWA, bringing 15-30%
PoPs to Lincoln, eastern Clark, and far eastern San Bernardino
County and 40-60% PoPs to Mohave County. Primary hazards will
include frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
Remaining forecast zones further west should remain sunny and dry,
though cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm forming off of
outflows from southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona.

PWATs will climb for our eastern zones, while dry air and single-
digit afternoon relative humidities persist for our western zones.
This sharp moisture gradient could result in dry thunderstorm
activity, which would combine with critically dry fuels to increase
the risk of fire starts and spreads. People are encouraged not to
recreate with sparks or flames, to safely and fully discard
cigarette butts, and ensure vehicle chains are not dragging on
concrete.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
east winds will continue through midday. Winds may approach 10 knots
out of the southeast in the afternoon, shifting to the southwest in
the evening. Skies will be mostly clear with a few mid and high
clouds. Temperatures exceed 100F between 18z and 05z, with a peak
around 111F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds tend to follow
typical daily patterns with speeds of less than 10 knots through the
TAF period. Westerly winds persist at KDAG through the morning,
picking up again in the evening. Although thunderstorm activity is
not expected in the vicinity of KBIH, outflow from thunderstorms
over the Sierra and White Mountains may reach the terminal in the
afternoon, causing brief changes in wind speed and direction.
Outside of convection, mid and upper level clouds pass through the
area today.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Meltzer/Outler

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