Bagdad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

355
FXUS65 KVEF 062215
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
315 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another day of terrain-based isolated showers and
thunderstorms as an elongated trough over the region taps into
persistent anomalous moisture. Coverage and intensity will continue
to decrease each afternoon through the weekend as the region dries
out and temperatures climb. Expect above-average temperatures, dry
conditions, and afternoon breeziness each day next week.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday.

An elongated trough stretched across the Desert Southwest will close
off of the southern California Coast today as it ejects a vorticity
maxima across the Mojave Desert. Despite south-to-north drying
trends, anomalous moisture (100-200% of normal) remains across the
Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. Coupled with typical daytime
heating and orographic mechanisms, we can expect afternoon terrain-
driven convection yet again today. CAPE values are about half what
they were yesterday and moisture is actively decreasing across the
area. For these reasons, both coverage and intensity of storms today
will be notably diminished compared to yesterday. That said,
especially over Lincoln County today, cannot rule out isolated flash
flooding from training storms or particularly strong storms.
Additionally, DCAPE across Inyo, San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave
counties ranges from 1200 to 1500 J/kg, so we can expect erratic
gusty winds from strong storms that develop.

A ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will begin to nose
northward through the Desert Southwest this weekend, which will help
clear out left over moisture. That said, there will still be PWATs
50-150% of normal across portions of the southern Great Basin that
will allow for additional terrain-based convection across Lincoln
County Saturday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.

Today is the coolest day of the forecast period. Temperatures will
climb through the weekend and start of next week as a ridge of high
pressure noses up from northern Mexico. Monday is currently slated
to be the hottest day of the forecast period, with temperatures
ranging 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal normals. Expect widespread
"Moderate" HeatRisk (Level 2 on a scale from 0 to 4), with "Major"
HeatRisk in the lower desert valleys. This level of heat affects
anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

Otherwise, the region will become sandwiched between a trough
dropping down from the Pacific Northwest and a growing ridge of high
pressure centered over northern Mexico. This will increase pressure
gradients aloft, which will result in gusty southwesterly winds each
afternoon through the forecast period. Winds should remain sub-
advisory, but will be a nuisance for outdoor events involving light-
weight items. As this trough approaches our region and drops heights
aloft, temperatures will gradually decrease through the week heading
into next weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Removed
vicinity thunderstorms from the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites, as
mountain convection has subsided without pushing into the valley.
That said, expect ongoing convection favoring the mountains along
the Mormon Mesa and Daggett corridors through sunset. Otherwise,
expect light and diurnal TAFs with speeds remaining below 10 kts.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Removed
vicinity thunderstorms from the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites, as
mountain convection has subsided without pushing into the valley. No
precipitation expected at terminals through the remainder of the TAF
period. Expect generally light and diurnal winds with the exception
of KDAG, where breezy west winds will pick up after sunset with
speeds between 10 and 15 kts. KBIH will experience gusty south-
southeasterly winds Saturday afternoon with speeds between 15 and 20
kts.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Soulat

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